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Emerson College Poll Confirms Tight Kansas Governor Race

Reeya Kamath
Reeya Kamath (left), and her friends, Hannah Bacud and Anjali Singh, vote early in the 2022 primary election.

A new Emerson College poll finds the Kansas governor’s race remains tight, and Democrats might get a win in a Kansas congressional race.

Emerson researchers heard from nearly 1,000 registered voters last weekend who said they were very likely to vote or have already voted in the midterm elections.


Results show the governor’s race continues to be a dead heat between Republican Kris Kobach and Democrat Laura Kelly. The poll suggests Kobach has a slight lead of 44 percent to Kelly’s 43 percent.

Independent candidate Greg Orman captured 8 percent of the vote.

If you look at the results by gender, female voters are slightly breaking for Kelly 45 percent to 41 percent, while males are breaking for Kobach 48 percent to 41 percent.

The poll shows Republican incumbents Roger Marshall and Ron Estes in the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts with commanding leads.

Marshall had 51 percent of the vote to Democrat Alan LaPolice's 36 percent. Voters in the survey gave Estes 63 percent of the vote over Democrat James Thompson's 33 percent.

Republican Steve Watkins is ahead of Democrat Paul Davis in the 2nd House District race with 48 percent to 41 percent.

The poll suggests the race for the 3rd Congressional District is competitive. Democrat Sharice Davids has a lead over incumbent Republican Congressman Kevin Yoder 55 percent to 43 percent.

The Emerson College poll was conducted on Oct. 26-28, 2018, and it has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points for the governor's race. The margin of error for the Congressional races ranged from +/- 6.3 percentage points in the 3rd and 4th Districts to +/- 6.6 in the 1st District.

Follow Deborah Shaar on Twitter @deborahshaar. To contact KMUW News or to send in a news tip, reach us at news@kmuw.org.

Deborah joined the news team at KMUW in September 2014 as a news reporter. She spent more than a dozen years working in news at both public and commercial radio and television stations in Ohio, West Virginia and Detroit, Michigan. Before relocating to Wichita in 2013, Deborah taught news and broadcasting classes at Tarrant County College in the Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas area.