A recent Zogby poll suggests that political change could be in the air in Kansas.
The research provides a snapshot of likely voters’ opinions on state government and national races as it was conducted at the beginning of June. As part of the survey, likely voters were asked to rate the state government’s performance and policies on a one-to-five scale.
National political analyst John Zogby presented the findings at a Kansas Health Foundation symposium in Wichita.
Shaar: Based on your recent research, tell us about the political climate that you’re seeing in Kansas.
Zogby: A nasty mood. You know, when we asked for an overall rating of the Kansas state government, not simply the governor or the Legislature, but the combined Kansas government, there were a lot of “ones” and “twos” out of five [ratings on a 1-5 “feeling thermometer”], meaning the lowest possible rating, particularly “ones” overall when it came to education. When it came to the safety net, when it came to infrastructure, taxes and spending, voters statewide just have a very low sentiment towards the Kansas state government.
With more than half of the respondents giving low ratings, what does that tell you in general about what could be coming next for our political leadership?
Change is in the air. But you know, I don't know who the candidates are, and I don't know the party structures, and I don't know the districts. I'm not on top of Kansas’ politics, but if I look at the overall mood, it would be enough to suggest to me that the party outside of power could make some inroads. I think, particularly when you look at one of the more revolutionary findings, which is to say, at this point in time anyway, that Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump. That's kind of the potential for the world turning upside down here in Kansas. There's a long way to go, and it's not a huge or commanding lead, but it is enough to suggest that something could happen here.
So how will Kansas fit into the national scene this election year?
All things being equal, historically, this should be a big Democratic year. And Democrats do come into this, and I'm saying that generically, the party, they come into this with an electoral college that historically favors them. You know, the last six elections, the poorest performer was John Kerry, and he got 257 out of 270 electoral votes. At the same time, demographics favor the Democrats. The fastest-growing segments of the population--younger voters, minority voters, creative class voters--they tend, at the very least, to either like the Democrats more or to fear Donald Trump.
But then you have the intersection in all of this with personalities, and you do have the two of the least-liked--best known, but least liked--personalities as the presumptive nominees for the party. I will hasten to add that I was among those who thought that Mr. Trump would be done. You know, September/October of last year, [it was like a] summer fling, lots of fun. Who knows, maybe he felt the same way. But whatever it was, at least on the Republican side, he connected, and he certainly has a monumental task of putting a party together. That remains to be seen whether he's the one who could put it together, but there are people who don't like or [trust] Hillary Clinton either.
So what role will millennials play in this election?
I think they drive this election. I don't see any evidence at all that they could become enamored with Donald Trump. The jury is still out among millennials as to whether they can vote for Hillary. Remember, Bernie was very popular. There's also Gary Johnson in the equation, who has some appeal, you know, especially on his social views, for those millennials who supported Bernie Sanders and don't like either of the major candidates. But pure and simple, if millennials turn out to vote in anywhere near the numbers that they voted in the last two elections, Democrats win. If they don't turn out to vote, it's very competitive.
So we’re less than 150 days from the November election, and polls are coming out every day now. What matters most for this poll for Kansans, and this election cycle?
To suggest that Kansas wasn't really on the radar screen, and, at least at this point in time, Kansas could be on the radar screen. Now, it's June. We have to see a lot of things play out. There're a number of variables. Are there other endorsements? Is there going to be enthusiasm here in Kansas? Does the governor, who's not terribly popular right now, and is very unpopular, what does Gov. Brownback do? Lots of variables.
The Kansas Health Foundation commissioned the Zogby poll on state government, the presidential race and the likely voting behavior for the upcoming election cycle.
Zogby’s company, John Zogby Strategies, completed a random survey of 433 registered voters in Kansas from June 4-6, 2016 and has a margin of error of +- 4.7% at a 95% confidence level.
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Follow Deborah Shaar on Twitter @deborahshaar.
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