Hundreds of business leaders from across the Wichita area were at Century II on Thursday to talk about the economy.
The highlight of the 2025 Kansas Economic Outlook Conference is always the latest forecast prepared by Wichita State University’s Center for Economic Development and Business Research.
It was the first forecast for Bekah Selby-Leach, who took over as director of CEDBR in November. She came to WSU from Emporia State University, where she was interim assistant provost and director of Institutional Research and Accreditation.
She talked with The Range about the year ahead economically for Wichita – including Boeing’s acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems – and how making financial predictions right now is difficult.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Tom Shine: Give me the highlights from this year’s report.
Bekah Selby-Leach: We're forecasting in a period of uncertainty that is unprecedented. Use those words so many times: uncertain, unprecedented. So, that makes forecasting particularly challenging. But I think the main headlines are going to be that things are slowing. We're seeing slowdowns in employment, we're seeing ticks up in unemployment, and we're starting to see GDP … tick down a little bit and this is for the state as a whole.
The report mentions the unknowns and challenges facing the state, including federal economic policy. Does uncertainty impact the economy?
It absolutely does because it changes the behavior of the consumers and producers in the economy. So, when producers are uncertain, then they tend to stockpile inventory, they tend to slow down in hiring processes, they tend to not backfill their positions. …
For consumers, uncertainty causes them to be more likely to save, less likely to borrow and invest, and we're more likely to see them purchasing more necessities rather than the expensive, luxury type goods
Boeing, as you know, is preparing to complete its acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems this year. How's that going to impact the local aviation sector? Or will it?
I think, hopefully, with all of the challenges that this particular industry has faced over the last couple of years, that in the end, what we'll see is positive impact on that industry because they want to make sure that quality is assured. We don't need any repeats of the challenges that they faced in the previous couple of years. And so we'll probably bring in even better talent, higher-paid jobs, more quality control, maybe even more vertical integration of that supply chain. And that can bring either even further jobs, just to make sure that … the components that come out of Spirit and planes that come out of other companies like Boeing and so forth, don't have any of those catastrophic challenges.
What about general aviation?
When we're thinking about durable goods manufacturing, we're seeing a lot of unpredictability in their employment patterns. For example, it has been somewhat decreasing, but the changes in automation and technology right now are really kind of changing the game when it comes to all manufacturing types, not just durable goods, nondurable goods as well. Manufacturers are increasingly facing pressures to internalize, vertically integrate those supply chains and so not just Spirit AeroSystems, but all of the general aerospace is finding – specifically the trade environment – to be very motivating to find ways to to create some stability and predictability in that space.
For the last few years, especially coming out of the pandemic, finding labor for businesses has really been a problem. That sounds like that's going to change going forward.
So, as the labor markets loosen up, as layoffs start to occur, we'll have a lot more talent that is available to take other jobs, and so it might be easier for some of these other employers who have been struggling to fill their positions to be able to fill those because there will be available workers in the market.
Oftentimes with these types of layoffs, you'll see more expensive talent dropped first. Management is a big one; they start gleaning the nonessential, or perceived nonessential, and so they tend to be the biggest cuts for the least amount of impact on the bottom line for the companies. So, we'll see a lot more of those types of skills on the market.
For college students graduating this December or in the spring, what can they expect to find in the job market?
The college students that are coming out into this job market are very likely going to have a lot more competition because of this loosening of the labor market. You have more people who've been let go, potentially high-skilled management level people, and then we've got fewer jobs being posted.
We may foresee students deciding to go into … further education. During … down periods for the economy, we tend to see education increasing, and that's just because they're continuing to skill until the economy recovers and jobs are more available.
Over the last decade, wages have outpaced the rate of inflation in Kansas, increasing personal income for people in the state. Will that trend continue in the coming years?
I would say so. We don't typically see personal income or wages dipping, even during recessionary periods. Wages are very sticky, so you tend to get into contracts that last a period of time, and you don't see them falling very quickly, and they tend to lag price changes, too. So, we are seeing prices increase, and that will eventually lead to workers demanding higher wages, and that will lead to wages increasing even further.
We also are behind the nation still in terms of wages and salaries. So, we have some room to grow still to become nationally competitive.
Anything I haven't asked you that you'd like to comment on?
I would say that this is a report that really calls for Kansans – all of the business owners, leaders, young people coming up into leadership positions or who want to make a change in the world – to really think about who we are going to be in the next 50 years.
I think everybody feels that we're very much at the precipice of technological shifts that will propel us or keep us behind. A lot of the people that I interact with are very much on the, “We're going to be a leader in this.” But we need to, as an entity that is Kansas, decide that we're going to place ourselves there, that we are going to be a national leader, a world leader, in whatever it is that we want to be known for in this new world.
We're on the verge of something great, but we have to come together and push ourselves into that and weather the storms. Right now, we're in a period of storm where we're needing to figure out how to make it through. But more than that, how can we utilize this time to make ourselves into who we want to be? The nice thing about when things are in a downturn or hard is it gives you the opportunity to reinvent sometimes. And so I think this is a call for us to ideate about how to take us to that next level for businesses and the economy as a whole, and place Kansas more solidly on the map and not just a flyover state.
View CEDBR's 2025 economic outlook report here:
