SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Israel and Iran are in their second week of war. At least 430 civilians have been killed in Iran, according to the country's health ministry. In Israel, the Prime Minister's Office says that 24 people have been killed. Israel struck first, targeting Iran's nuclear program. Israel says it is a covert weapons project. This runs counter to both U.S. intelligence and Iran's own claims. Israeli officials say this war could result in regime change in Iran, overturning the government that has been in power for 46 years.
Mehrzad Boroujerdi is vice provost and dean of the College of Arts, Sciences and Education at Missouri University of Science and Technology and joins us. Thanks so much for being with us.
MEHRZAD BOROUJERDI: Thanks for having me, Scott.
SIMON: Iran, by design, does not have a powerful opposition party, so who or what could rise to power if the government is overturned?
BOROUJERDI: Right. I think we are looking at a really difficult situation here. We have a highly unpopular regime. We have a rather weak and fractured opposition. We have a country with a, you know, weak economy and really no true friends - regional friends - in this area that they are fighting. So that makes it difficult. Now, the question is, you know, we have a lot of Iranians in exile, and many of these exiles are rather, you know, vociferous in their opposition to the regime. Some might be, you know, dream merchants in terms of thinking what's going to happen in Iran.
The fact of the matter, in my view, is that at the moment, we really do not have a force that is capable, has the organizational muscle inside the country to be able to, you know, take charge. And there is, as of this moment, at least, really no sign that any serious defection from the regime is taking place, for example, you know, IRGC members, etc., coming to the opposition.
BOROUJERDI: Furthermore, one worries if the U.S. decides to get involved and the temperature in the room goes up, what are going to be the terms of, you know, surrender for Iran? Frankly, I think both the prospects of regime collapse and the prospects of regime survival do not look good. Under each of these scenarios, you know, we can expect a lot to get worse.
SIMON: Well, let's ask - what's the difference between regime change from inside, which has perhaps been frustrated for years, and foreign intervention? Would that actually work to make the regime more popular?
BOROUJERDI: Well, you know, I think it's fair to say that, you know, Iranians are quite nationalistic people, and, therefore, there is a strong sentiment in the country that does not feel that, you know, you can bring democracy through, you know, foreign forces. Keep in mind, not only recent examples next door to Iran of Iraq, Afghanistan, you know, Libya, Syria, have not been promising. But Iran also is a country that, you know, experienced the 1953 CIA-organized coup that came to create a crisis of legitimacy for the shah, right? And, therefore, those sentiments are still there. My humble opinion is that the polity is really divided, and you have those who are, you know, pro-attack and those who are very much against it.
SIMON: In your judgment, Mr. Boroujerdi, how could meaningful, successful regime change come about in Iran?
BOROUJERDI: I believe Iran has had no shortage of, you know, social movements that have questioned the legitimacy of the state. I think that's going to continue. The incompetence of the current regime and its, you know, horrible human rights record I think still is going to create conditions where eventually the scale is going to be tipped in favor of the public if we were not going to have regime change by force from outside forces. It's a question of when, not if.
SIMON: Mehrzad Boroujerdi, Missouri University of Science and Technology. Thanks so much for being with us.
BOROUJERDI: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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