DHAKA, Bangladesh — The Bangladeshi Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, claimed victory Friday in the first elections held since the previous government was toppled in a student-led revolution in 2024.
Final results have yet to be announced, with the Election Commission expected to do so shortly, but the BNP says it has secured a majority.
Developments in Bangladesh are being closely watched beyond its borders. It is the world's eighth-most populous country and second-largest garment exporter after China, supplying major brands to Europe and the United States - a position the BNP will be keen to protect.
Rahman, 60, hails from a political dynasty. Both of his parents were central figures in the party for decades. His father, military officer and former president Ziaur Rahman, founded the BNP in 1978.
His mother, Khaleda Zia - who died in December - had led the party for more than 30 years and served three times as prime minister.
Rahman's rise follows the uprising in July and August 2024 that resulted in up to 1,400 deaths, according to the United Nations. The unrest ended with former prime minister and Awami League leader Sheikh Hasina fleeing the country.
Jon Danilowicz, an independent political analyst and retired U.S. diplomat who previously served in Bangladesh, told NPR he believes the uprising may serve as a warning for Rahman.
He said: "Tarique Rahman would not be in the position he is in had he not been Khaleda Zia and Ziaur Rahman's son. But it seems he has understood what has changed in the country. He has acknowledged the July revolution and the sacrifices of those who were on the front line."
Rahman faced a tough challenge from Bangladesh's third-largest party, Jamaat-e-Islami, which contested the election as part of an 11-party alliance that included the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by students who led the uprising.
He now faces the daunting task of steering the South Asian nation of around 180 million people through high inflation, rising unemployment and the growing impacts of climate change.
It will be an especially challenging task for someone who has never held public office in Bangladesh and returned to the country less than two months ago after 17 years of self-imposed exile in London.
While abroad, Rahman was convicted in Bangladesh of multiple offences while the Awami League was in power, including corruption and money laundering - convictions he and his party rejected as politically motivated.
The rulings were overturned between 2024 and 2025 during an interim period led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, paving the way for his return.
Challenges ahead
As prime minister, his immediate challenge will be to form a government capable of tackling economic pressures, creating jobs and restoring law and order.
"There have been a lot of promises made in terms of social welfare programs and family cards, which give women with families a monthly stipend," Danilowicz said. "But there's a fiscal reality the government will face. Bangladesh has one of the lowest taxation rates, and there are limits to how much revenue it can generate."
On foreign policy, the BNP government is expected to consolidate its relations with both the United States and China. The BNP has already said it plans to deepen relations with China, Bangladesh's largest trading partner. Relations with neighboring India, however, could prove more complicated.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government enjoyed close ties with the Awami League while it was in power and has been sheltering Sheikh Hasina since she fled. New Delhi has so far not responded to requests from Bangladesh to extradite her after a Bangladeshi court sentenced Hasina to death in November last year for crimes against humanity linked to the uprising - a verdict she refutes.
Danilowicz said: "Bangladesh's population has turned against India over the past 18 months. The challenge for Rahman will be how far the BNP can go towards restoring relations with India without facing a public backlash."
Rahman and his party must also contend with a package of reform proposals designed to prevent a return to authoritarian rule. Known as the July National Charter, the plan outlines constitutional, institutional and electoral changes.
It was signed in October last year by leaders of major political parties and approved by voters in a referendum held the same day as the parliamentary elections.
Danilowicz said: "Certainly, the reforms can make a difference, making it harder for an executive to act in a way that is unchecked by any other institution. That was a fundamental issue that needed to be addressed."
With a reasonably robust opposition in parliament in the form of a Jamaat-e-Islami alliance, the BNP government is likely to face closer scrutiny than its predecessor.
Copyright 2026 NPR