The Academy Awards are Sunday, and if you need help with your Oscar pool, you’ve come to the right place.
KMUW film critic Fletcher Powell and digital news reporter – and movie buff – Hugo Phan discuss who they think will win gold on Hollywood’s biggest night.
Fletcher Powell: Hugo, let's get the big question out of the way first: “Oppenheimer” has won a lot of guild awards and some critics awards, too. Is there any chance of something else winning Best Picture this year?
Hugo Phan: [The films] that usually kind of dominate the conversation leading up to the awards [usually] run out of steam and lose gas, and then … a switch or flip happens. [However], the momentum [is] still … all behind “Oppenheimer,” so I don't think there's going to be [a] … pivot to any other films at this point. It just seems like [it’s] clear and far away the front runner.
FP: And does that extend to Christopher Nolan also with the directing award?
HP: I believe so. He won the Director’s Guild Award recently, and it doesn't seem like anybody else … is tailing him. Currently, the only person I would consider seeing an upset [from] is (Martin) Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), and I don't think that's going to happen.
FP: Does “Oppenheimer's” coattails extend into the acting categories? Is it going to bring … Cillian Murphy along to win best actor and Robert Downey Jr. [for] supporting actor, and even Emily Blunt maybe in supporting actress?
I believe so for at least one of them, and … very likely two of them. For best supporting actor, Robert Downey Jr. has had [that on] lock for the whole award season. For best actor … it's been kind of back and forth between Paul Giamatti [“The Holdovers”] and Cillian Murphy, but I think … Murphy is going to edge it out here. Regarding supporting actress, I don't think Emily Blunt will take it here. I think it will go to Da'Vine Joy Randolph for “The Holdovers,” who has been kind of just sweeping the award season this time around.
And most of these picks that you have here, do they more or less reflect the awards that have already been given out through the various guilds and critics groups?
Yeah. I … look at a mixture of what's going on with awards and who's been winning the awards, as well as maybe some betting or critic sites … and I kind of do a composite of both to kind of come up with my conclusions about who's going to win and who is not going to win.
[There’s] at least one category that doesn't have “Oppenheimer” [and that’s] lead actress. I am pulling for Lily Gladstone from “Killers of the Flower Moon.” She is always fantastic, and she is absolutely the heart of that movie. Many people have said — even as good as the movie is — when she's not on screen, it drags. Is there a chance for her here or will Emma Stone take it for “Poor Things”?
I think [Lily] will take it here. She recently won the SAG Award for Best Actress. [Previously], she was competing with Emma Stone at the Golden Globes and at the Critics Choice Awards — [Stone] kind of edged out there. But I think people are going to look at [Stone], and be like, “We've already given her award,” and it’s time to spread the love of around and give [“Killers of the Flower Moon”] a bit of something, considering that it might not take too much away that night.
Yeah, it is interesting. So much [is] piling up with “Oppenheimer” because the Oscars have kind of spread things around in recent years, which I guess that itself was a departure from earlier years in the Oscars when we often did see sweeps.
It's a big departure. I mean, they seem to be more generous, particularly with how international the academy body has become within the past few years. But this year people … have been really … rallying around Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan, and even by extension Greta Gerwig with “Barbie.” [People are enthusiastic about] getting people back to the theaters and getting excited about theatrical releases again.
Well, speaking of Greta Gerwig and “Barbie,” a category that maybe a little more competitive is adapted screenplay — and then we can talk about original screenplay, too — but those screenplay categories seem to be a little bit more up in the air at least.
Yeah, it's a bit tighter. And there's some controversy, especially around adapted screenplay, [regarding] “Barbie” being nominated there considering it was not based on anything. [The counterargument] is [that it’s] based on some IP. I have “Oppenheimer” pulling out the win in adapted screenplay, but “Barbie” coming in second. But don't be surprised if “Barbie” pulls an upset just because people did really like that movie.
And then original screenplay seems also to be a pretty competitive category. Just looking at the nominees here … at least three of them I think that could win.
I'm gonna say “Anatomy of a Fall,” “The Holdovers” and “Past Lives.”
Those are the three that are kind of on my radar as the top three to possibly take it. I think I'm gonna give the edge to “Anatomy of the Fall.” Because of the strikes, the WGA has pushed their guild awards to April, so about a month after the Oscars, so it's kind of hard to predict what might win or might not win the screenplay categories. But since Justine Triet has [been] taking a few of those awards recently, I'm going to give the edge to her, even though … my heart is out there for “Past Lives,” which was my favorite film of last year.
Are there any other categories that have something interesting sticking out for you?
Animated feature film I think is interesting. It'll be between [“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse”] versus Miyazaki’s [“The Boy and the Heron”] this year. And I think I'm gonna give the edge to “Spider-verse” because the Annie Awards recently awarded them with their big prize. So even though Miyazaki came out of retirement…
Again.
Yeah, again. [Laughs] I think [it’s] gonna go to “Spider-verse.”
Miyazaki has won before, though, hasn't he?
I believe so. With “Spirited Away.”
Yes. And so not out of the realm of possibility. His work — always, of course — [is] fantastic. If there was one thing that could happen that you wish would happen regardless of what might actually happen, what would it be that you would pick?
I think it would be “Past Lives” winning best original screenplay just because I think that category, specifically, has done a good job in the past of … recognizing … new and upcoming exciting voices. And I think it'd be good for Celine Song to kind of have her first debut be recognized [in] that way.
If I could choose — I [would] choose a lot of things, actually — but I think it would be Paul Giamatti and Jeffrey Wright to tie for best actor, and that would…
That would be wonderful.
I would love that so much.
For more of Fletcher Powell's reviews on Oscar films, click here.
